Ludhiana: Amid the COVID case surge, the latest CMCH study suggested that the first peak had tapered off and the second was expected by around mid-May. The study said that the second peak could last till June. These projections were made by the preventive and social medicine department of CMCH on the basis of available data.
A doctor involved in the projection said that preliminary modeling suggested, “The first peak of the surge is over. The highest case tally during the first peak was around 60 in Ludhiana on April 22 whereas for Punjab, it was on April 19 when 467 cases were reported. We need to be careful as we may have the second peak. Our finding is that if the second peak comes, it will be around mid-May and is expected to go into June.”
He also said that in 2020, there were two peaks, the was around August 16 whereas the second was around September 17 and 18. In the second wave, the peak of first peak was around April 9, 2021 and the second was around May 9 whereas in the third wave, there was one peak around January 14, 2022. He added that even as the number of cases from Ludhiana was around 60, it was around 15 times less than that reported as few came forward to get tested for COVID.
The doctor said that the second peak was expected to have an endemic pattern. Meanwhile, a specialist at CMCH advised public caution.
“Parents with children less than 1 year of age should take care and follow all precautions because their children are at higher risk. Family members who have elderly or people with underlying heart or kidney disease or other diseases should adopt protective measures because their family members are at higher risk. Vaccination is very important as it is seen to reduce severity of the disease,” said Dr Clarence Samuel, an epidemiologist at CMCH.
“The wave can come as infectivity rate is increasing but I think it is not going to be fatal as we have good number of vaccinated people. But elderly, children, those with co-morbidities should take precautions and follow COVID norms like wearing masks and avoiding crowded places,” said Ludhiana IMA president Dr Gaurav Sachdeva.
Nine Covid cases, 1 death reported in city
One city resident died of COVID while nine tested positive for the disease on Saturday, taking the number of active cases to 99. A day before, 11 persons from the district tested positive for Covid here.
Health officials said that the deceased was a 73-year-old man who was admitted in Hero DMC Heart Institute in Ludhiana. He suffered from hypertension, diabetes milletus (for last 10 to 15 years), heart disease (for 10-15 years), Parkinsons, Supranuclear Palsy etc. Also, he had not been vaccinated.
Health officials said that the number of deaths in the district had increased to 3,027 of which 1,143 were from other districts and state.
Nine patients who tested positive for COVID included three who had influenza like illness, a patient who was tested at a hospital OPD, a healthcare worker, contact of a positive patient, an undertrial and two patients, who are being traced.
So far, 1,14,470 persons have tested positive for COVID while 15,382 are from other states and districts. On Saturday, 855 samples were taken of which 671 were done through RT-PCR whereas 184 were rapid antigen tests.
The capacity of isolation ward in government hospitals is 390 whereas that of private hospitals is 2,066. There are 277 ventilators in hospitals of which 256 are in private hospitals. Health officials said that as cases of viral flu were being reported, people should wear masks, at least in crowded places.
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